In June 2026, multiple ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a series of heavyweight policies. From the construction plan of the new energy system to the energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation of key industries, from the improvement of the capacity electricity pricing mechanism to the transformation of thermal and electric decoupling technology, a systematic policy "combination fist" covering planning guidance, transformation and strengthening, and price mechanism is accelerating its implementation.

For the coal-fired heating sector, which has long been mired in losses, the window for profit recovery is opening - but the magnitude and speed of this opening depend on whether the enterprise can accurately grasp policy opportunities and effectively respond to transformation challenges.

1、 Deeply mired in losses during the 14th Five Year Plan: the pain of industries with billions of deficits

“十四五”期间，煤电供热板块累计亏损超千亿元。在中国电力科技网、北京中盛国策新能源技术院召开的“2025智慧热电与灵活调峰大会”上，中国电力科技网专家委员会主任魏毓璞指出，热电正面临三重攻坚：一是煤电需从基础电源转向调峰电源的定位重构，二是多能互补系统中新能源消纳与供热稳定的平衡难题，三是数字化技术如何深度赋能传统机组智能化改造。

Coal power is still the cornerstone and ballast of China's energy supply in the near to medium term, and it is also the most economical and reliable source of heating for people's livelihoods and industrial use at present. However, the financial statements of many coal-fired power companies in the heating sector show a deficit. Professor Fu Lin from the School of Architecture at Tsinghua University pointed out that peak shaving brings dual risks to the heating capacity and cost of thermal power plants. In terms of cost, heating has become a burden for coal-fired power enterprises.

Behind the industry's losses is the systemic dilemma faced by coal-fired power in the energy transition: the explosive growth of new energy installed capacity has forced coal-fired power to shift from a main power source to a regulatory support role, but there is a fundamental contradiction between the traditional operation mode of "heat determines electricity" and the flexible scheduling requirements of the electricity spot market.

2、 Intensive implementation of new policies: comprehensive use of policy "combination punches"

Entering June 2026, multiple key policies will be intensively introduced, indicating the direction of transformation for the coal-fired heating industry and providing substantial policy dividends.

（1） The 15th Five Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System: Top level Setting

2026年6月13日，国家发改委、国家能源局印发《新型能源体系建设“十五五”规划》(发改能源〔2026〕884号)。

The plan is clear, aiming to establish a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system by 2030, with peak coal and oil consumption and a non fossil energy consumption ratio of 25%. Among the main indicators, a reduction of over 10% in carbon emissions per unit of electricity generation and energy savings of over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries are included in the binding or expected indicators.

The plan also proposes multiple quantitative goals for energy development during the 15th Five Year Plan period: the total installed capacity of electricity will increase from 3.89 billion kilowatts in 2025 to 5.4 billion kilowatts in 2030, the proportion of non fossil energy generation will increase from 42.3% to 50%, and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption will increase from 30% to 35%.

（2） Three year Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation: Clarify Technical Path

2026年6月15日，国家发改委、工信部、生态环境部、国务院国资委、国家能源局等五部门联合印发《关于开展重点行业节能降碳改造攻坚三年行动的通知》(发改环资〔2026〕698号)。

The notice specifies that starting from 2026, nine industries including steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power will be the focus, and energy-saving and carbon reduction renovations will be fully implemented within three years. By the end of 2028, the proportion of energy efficiency benchmark level production capacity in the coal-fired power industry will strive to increase by 15 percentage points, and the production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will be basically zero, resulting in energy savings of over 100 million tons of standard coal and carbon dioxide emissions reduction of over 200 million tons.

在煤电行业的具体要求中，多项内容直接指向热电协同与热电解耦：

Promote the implementation of thermal electric decoupling transformation of cogeneration units in winter centralized heating areas according to local conditions, and strive to achieve peak shaving depth of less than 40% after the transformation.

推动具备条件的30万千瓦以上现役煤电机组通过耦合新能源、掺烧生物质、加装储能储热设施等方式实施低碳化改造，改造后度电碳排放降低10%—20%，力争降低20%以上。

落实新一代煤电升级专项行动要求，推动煤电快调、深调、宽负荷等高效调节能力改造应改尽改，鼓励煤电与新能源融合发展。

在资金支持方面，通知明确对符合条件的节能降碳改造项目按核定总投资20%的比例给予资金补助，优先支持改造后能效达到标杆水平的项目。

(三)容量电价机制完善：盈利修复的核心支撑

2026年，国家发改委、国家能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》(发改价格〔2026〕114号)。

根据该通知，2026年起煤电通过容量电价回收固定成本比例不低于50%(即165元/千瓦·年)，可结合当地市场建设、煤电利用小时数等实际情况进一步提高。

各省份已陆续落实。河北省发改委明确，自2026年起煤电容量电价年度标准调整为165元/千瓦·年(含税)-。北京市发改委通知明确，自2026年1月1日起将煤电容量电价从每年每千瓦100元调整为165元-。广东省发改委通知明确，煤电机组容量电价调整为每年每千瓦165元，自2026年1月1日起执行-。上海市发改委通知明确，自2026年1月1日起煤电容量电价调整为165元/千瓦·年-。部分省份进一步提高标准——天津、四川升至231元/千瓦·年，吉林、甘肃、云南升至330元/千瓦·年，辽宁提升至370元/千瓦·年。

容量电价机制的完善，意味着煤电企业过去长期无法回收的固定成本开始获得制度性补偿。容量电价基本能够覆盖煤电固定成本，折旧到期后有望贡献稳定盈利，煤电收益稳定性明显增强。

三、盈利修复的逻辑：多重驱动正在形成

政策红利的叠加释放，正在从多个维度推动煤电供热板块的盈利修复。

驱动一：容量电价提供稳定收益底座

容量电价机制的完善，为煤电企业提供了稳定的固定成本补偿渠道，煤电收益的稳定性正在逐步增强。

驱动二：电价拐点预期增强

2026年以来，煤价持续上涨。3月以来动力煤价格持续上行，虽然带来短期成本压力，但也有望支撑后续年度电价谈判。机构分析认为，2026年长协电价下行压力已较充分反映，容量电价回收比例提升、辅助服务需求增长及迎峰度夏期间现货价格弹性，有望对火电收益形成补充。

有机构判断，火电板块的业绩拐点已经到来——2026年一季度火电在年度长协电价大跌的情况下仍然实现业绩增长，超出市场预期。火电发电的灵活性价值和做市能力正在得到体现，二季度火电业绩底部基本确立。

驱动三：算电协同开辟新增长空间

2026年，“算电协同”首次写入政府工作报告-;《新型能源体系建设“十五五”规划》首次将“算力”作为独立关键词纳入能源规划，明确“推动算电协同一体化发展”。算力中心用电高增，算力集群所在地的煤电由基础负荷转向电网调节刚需。这一趋势为煤电企业提供了新的收益增长点——调峰价值在算电协同场景下得到重估，煤电联营企业依托低成本煤源筑牢盈利底座。

四、挑战与展望：窗口虽开，路并不平坦

盈利修复的窗口正在打开，但煤电供热行业面临的挑战同样不容忽视。

技术改造投资压力大。  热电解耦改造、储能储热设施加装、低碳化改造等均涉及较大规模投资。虽然中央财政对符合条件的项目按20%的比例给予补助，但企业仍需承担80%的投资。

煤价上涨侵蚀利润空间。  煤价上涨在支撑电价的同时，也直接推高了燃料成本。2026年动力煤价格同比涨幅显著，对现货煤采购比例较高的企业构成较大压力。

热电协同的技术复杂性。  正如付林所分析的，无论电价处于高位还是低位，热电厂供热能力都会降低——电价高时倾向于少供热多发电，电价低时倾向于少供热少发电，结果都是供热量减少。在碳中和目标下，火电厂全面发电小时数将降至2000小时以下，冬季约1000小时，未来供热能力或降至当前的三分之一。

结构性分化将持续。  具备煤电一体化、长协煤保障和区域电价韧性的企业盈利稳定性更强，而现货煤采购比例高、机组老旧、缺乏改造能力的企业可能面临更大压力。

结语

2026年6月密集落地的热电协同新政，为煤电供热行业提供了近年来最具实质性的政策支撑。从“十五五”规划的顶层定调，到节能降碳改造的明确路径，再到容量电价机制的制度性完善——多重政策叠加之下，煤电供热的盈利修复窗口正在打开。

但这个窗口不是自动打开的，更不是对所有企业一视同仁的。能否抓住容量电价提升的收益增量，能否在三年改造攻坚期内完成技术升级，能否在算电协同的新场景中找到增长空间——这些问题的答案，将决定不同企业在“十五五”期间的不同命运。

正如魏毓璞所言，煤电供热困局表面是经济问题，实质是能源转型中的系统性挑战。那些能够在新政框架下率先完成技术升级、精准对接政策红利的企业，才有可能在这场深刻变革中率先走出盈利修复的曲线。

免责声明：本文所引用的政策文件及数据，均来源于国家发改委、国家能源局等官方公开渠道及行业权威媒体报道，仅供信息参考之用，不构成任何投资建议或决策依据。文中涉及的行业趋势判断与分析，系基于公开信息的客观梳理，不代表对任何政策走向的确定性预测。如文中内容存在不当之处，欢迎指正。

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