In June 2026, multiple ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a series of heavyweight policies. From the construction plan of the new energy system to the energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation of key industries, from the improvement of the capacity electricity pricing mechanism to the transformation of thermal and electric decoupling technology, a systematic policy "combination fist" covering planning guidance, transformation and strengthening, and price mechanism is accelerating its implementation.

For the coal-fired heating sector, which has long been mired in losses, the window for profit recovery is opening - but the magnitude and speed of this opening depend on whether the enterprise can accurately grasp policy opportunities and effectively respond to transformation challenges.

1、 Deeply mired in losses during the 14th Five Year Plan: the pain of industries with billions of deficits

During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the coal-fired heating sector suffered a cumulative loss of over 100 billion yuan. At the "2025 Smart Thermal Power and Flexible Peak shaving Conference" held by China Electric Power Technology Network and Beijing Zhongsheng National Strategy New Energy Technology Institute, Wei Yupu, Director of the Expert Committee of China Electric Power Technology Network, pointed out that thermal power is facing three challenges: first, the positioning and reconstruction of coal-fired power needs to shift from basic power sources to peak shaving power sources; second, the balance problem between new energy consumption and heating stability in multi energy complementary systems; and third, how digital technology can deeply empower the intelligent transformation of traditional units.

Coal power is still the cornerstone and ballast of China's energy supply in the near to medium term, and it is also the most economical and reliable source of heating for people's livelihoods and industrial use at present. However, the financial statements of many coal-fired power companies in the heating sector show a deficit. Professor Fu Lin from the School of Architecture at Tsinghua University pointed out that peak shaving brings dual risks to the heating capacity and cost of thermal power plants. In terms of cost, heating has become a burden for coal-fired power enterprises.

Behind the industry's losses is the systemic dilemma faced by coal-fired power in the energy transition: the explosive growth of new energy installed capacity has forced coal-fired power to shift from a main power source to a regulatory support role, but there is a fundamental contradiction between the traditional operation mode of "heat determines electricity" and the flexible scheduling requirements of the electricity spot market.

2、 Intensive implementation of new policies: comprehensive use of policy "combination punches"

Entering June 2026, multiple key policies will be intensively introduced, indicating the direction of transformation for the coal-fired heating industry and providing substantial policy dividends.

（1） The 15th Five Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System: Top level Setting

On June 13, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five Year Plan for the Construction of a New Energy System" (NDRC Energy [2026] No. 884).

The plan is clear, aiming to establish a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system by 2030, with peak coal and oil consumption and a non fossil energy consumption ratio of 25%. Among the main indicators, a reduction of over 10% in carbon emissions per unit of electricity generation and energy savings of over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries are included in the binding or expected indicators.

The plan also proposes multiple quantitative goals for energy development during the 15th Five Year Plan period: the total installed capacity of electricity will increase from 3.89 billion kilowatts in 2025 to 5.4 billion kilowatts in 2030, the proportion of non fossil energy generation will increase from 42.3% to 50%, and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption will increase from 30% to 35%.

（2） Three year Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation: Clarify Technical Path

On June 15, 2026, five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out the Three Year Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Key Industries" (NDRC Huanzi [2026] No. 698).

The notice specifies that starting from 2026, nine industries including steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power will be the focus, and energy-saving and carbon reduction renovations will be fully implemented within three years. By the end of 2028, the proportion of energy efficiency benchmark level production capacity in the coal-fired power industry will strive to increase by 15 percentage points, and the production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will be basically zero, resulting in energy savings of over 100 million tons of standard coal and carbon dioxide emissions reduction of over 200 million tons.

In the specific requirements of the coal-fired power industry, multiple contents directly point to thermoelectric synergy and thermoelectric decoupling:

Promote the implementation of thermal electric decoupling transformation of cogeneration units in winter centralized heating areas according to local conditions, and strive to achieve peak shaving depth of less than 40% after the transformation.

Promote the low-carbon transformation of active coal-fired power units with a capacity of over 300000 kilowatts that meet the conditions through coupling new energy, co firing biomass, and installing energy and heat storage facilities. After the transformation, the carbon emissions per kilowatt hour will be reduced by 10% to 20%, striving to reduce them by more than 20%.

Implement the requirements of the special action plan for upgrading the new generation of coal-fired power plants, promote the transformation of high-efficiency regulation capabilities such as rapid adjustment, deep adjustment, and wide load adjustment of coal-fired power plants, and encourage the integrated development of coal-fired power plants and new energy.

In terms of financial support, the notice specifies that eligible energy-saving and carbon reduction renovation projects will receive funding subsidies at a rate of 20% of the approved total investment, with priority given to projects that achieve benchmark energy efficiency after renovation.

（3） Improving the Capacity Pricing Mechanism: The Core Support for Profit Restoration

In 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Improving the Capacity Pricing Mechanism on the Power Generation Side (NDRC Price [2026] No. 114).

According to the notice, starting from 2026, the fixed cost recovery ratio of coal-fired power through capacity electricity pricing shall not be less than 50% (i.e. 165 yuan/kW · year), which can be further increased based on local market construction, coal-fired power utilization hours, and other actual situations.

Each province has gradually implemented it. The Development and Reform Commission of Hebei Province has clarified that starting from 2026, the annual standard for coal-fired power capacity electricity pricing will be adjusted to 165 yuan/kilowatt year (including tax). The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice stating that starting from January 1, 2026, the electricity price for coal-fired power capacity will be adjusted from 100 yuan per kilowatt per year to 165 yuan per kilowatt. The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice clarifying that the capacity electricity price for coal-fired power units will be adjusted to 165 yuan per kilowatt per year, effective from January 1, 2026. The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice clarifying that the electricity price for coal-fired power capacity will be adjusted to 165 yuan/kilowatt year from January 1, 2026. Some provinces have further raised their standards - Tianjin and Sichuan have raised them to 231 yuan/kW · year, Jilin, Gansu, and Yunnan have raised them to 330 yuan/kW · year, and Liaoning has raised them to 370 yuan/kW · year.

The improvement of the capacity pricing mechanism means that coal-fired power enterprises are beginning to receive institutional compensation for fixed costs that could not be recovered for a long time in the past. The capacity electricity price can basically cover the fixed costs of coal-fired power, and is expected to contribute stable profits after depreciation expires, significantly enhancing the stability of coal-fired power revenue.

3、 The logic of profit recovery: multiple drivers are forming

The cumulative release of policy dividends is driving the profit recovery of the coal-fired heating sector from multiple dimensions.

Driver 1: Capacity pricing provides a stable revenue base

The improvement of the capacity pricing mechanism provides a stable fixed cost compensation channel for coal-fired power enterprises, and the stability of coal-fired power revenue is gradually increasing.

Driver 2: Expectations of a turning point in electricity prices increase

Since 2026, coal prices have continued to rise. Since March, the price of thermal coal has continued to rise, although it has brought short-term cost pressure, it is also expected to support the subsequent annual electricity price negotiations. Institutional analysis suggests that the downward pressure on long-term cooperative electricity prices in 2026 has been fully reflected. The increase in the proportion of capacity electricity price recovery, the growth in demand for auxiliary services, and the elasticity of spot prices during peak summer season are expected to supplement the revenue of thermal power generation.

According to some institutions, the turning point in the performance of the thermal power sector has arrived - in the first quarter of 2026, thermal power still achieved performance growth despite the sharp decline in annual long-term contract electricity prices, exceeding market expectations. The flexibility value and market making ability of thermal power generation are being reflected, and the bottom of thermal power performance in the second quarter is basically established.

Drive 3: Collaborative development of computing and electronics opens up new growth opportunities

In 2026, the concept of "collaborative computing and electronics" will be included for the first time in the government work report; The "15th Five Year Plan" for the construction of a new energy system includes "computing power" as an independent keyword in energy planning for the first time, clearly stating "promoting the coordinated and integrated development of computing and electricity". The electricity consumption of the computing power center has increased significantly, and the coal-fired power in the location of the computing power cluster has shifted from basic load to power grid regulation and demand. This trend provides new revenue growth points for coal-fired power enterprises - the peak shaving value is revalued in the scenario of computing and electricity synergy, and coal-fired power joint ventures rely on low-cost coal sources to build a solid profit base.

4、 Challenge and Outlook: Although the window is open, the road is not smooth

The window for profit recovery is opening, but the challenges faced by the coal-fired heating industry cannot be ignored.

The investment pressure for technological transformation is high. Thermoelectric decoupling transformation, installation of energy storage facilities, and low-carbon transformation all involve large-scale investments. Although the central government provides subsidies of 20% to eligible projects, enterprises still need to bear 80% of the investment.

The rise in coal prices erodes profit margins. The rise in coal prices not only supports electricity prices, but also directly drives up fuel costs. The significant year-on-year increase in the price of thermal coal in 2026 puts significant pressure on enterprises with a high proportion of spot coal procurement.

The technical complexity of thermoelectric synergy. As analyzed by Fu Lin, regardless of whether electricity prices are high or low, the heating capacity of thermal power plants will decrease - when electricity prices are high, they tend to provide less heating and generate more electricity, and when electricity prices are low, they tend to provide less heating and generate less electricity, resulting in a decrease in heating capacity. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, the total power generation hours of thermal power plants will be reduced to below 2000 hours, with about 1000 hours in winter, and the future heating capacity may be reduced to one-third of the current level.

Structural differentiation will continue. Enterprises with coal electricity integration, long-term coal guarantee, and regional electricity price resilience have stronger profit stability, while those with a high proportion of spot coal procurement, outdated units, and lack of renovation capabilities may face greater pressure.

Conclusion

The intensive implementation of the new policy on thermal power synergy in June 2026 has provided the most substantial policy support for the coal-fired heating industry in recent years. From the top-level adjustment of the 15th Five Year Plan, to the clear path of energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation, and to the institutional improvement of the capacity electricity pricing mechanism - under the superposition of multiple policies, the window for profit recovery of coal-fired heating is opening.

But this window does not automatically open, let alone treat all businesses equally. The answers to these questions will determine the different fates of different enterprises during the "15th Five Year Plan" period, including whether they can seize the incremental benefits of the increase in capacity electricity prices, whether they can complete technological upgrades within the three-year renovation period, and whether they can find growth space in the new scenario of computing and electricity collaboration.

As Wei Yupu said, the dilemma of coal-fired heating appears to be an economic issue, but in essence it is a systemic challenge in the energy transition. Only those enterprises that can complete technological upgrades and accurately align with policy dividends within the framework of the new policy are likely to be the first to break out of the profit recovery curve in this profound transformation.

Disclaimer: The policy documents and data cited in this article are sourced from official public channels such as the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, as well as authoritative media reports in the industry. They are for informational purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice or decision-making basis. The industry trend judgment and analysis mentioned in the article are based on an objective review of publicly available information and do not represent a definitive prediction of any policy direction. If there are any inappropriate parts in the content of the article, please feel free to correct them.

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